Young rice area at pre-flood. ©Debra L Ferguson
Planting intentions are formally on the minds of rice producers and the “vacation fog” is lifting off the market. To start, an unprecedented provide for medium grain surfaced final week, the place one of many bigger coops in the south procured roughly 60,000 acres of medium grain at costs in the $20/cwt vary. This is a really uncommon prevalence certainly, and it now seems that medium grain seed would be the constraining issue for extra development in acreage. The transfer to medium grain would make sense for growers in the South, particularly when contemplating the large discount in California manufacturing this 12 months, and the ensuing report pricing in extra of $1,600 pmt that Calrose has skilled. A spike in medium grain acres in the South is to be anticipated although, because the ERS Rice Outlook factors out that final 12 months solely 398,000 complete acres of medium and quick grain had been harvested in the U.S. This is 28% fewer MG/SG acres than the earlier 12 months, and the bottom since at the least 1972/73. Read extra right here.
The lengthy grain market continues to be a head-scratcher; export demand stays low whereas costs are excessive. The excessive costs are on account of a brief crop, however when in comparison with different origins, U.S. rice is effectively over $200 pmt increased than its opponents. We reported final week the good news of an extra 44,000 metric tons of enterprise to Iraq, and the importance can’t be understated when the nation might have sourced that rice from Thailand at costs nearer to $500 pmt. All this to say, the export enterprise is greater than welcomed and helps complement a gradual core of the home enterprise that has held the market agency all 12 months. We eagerly await extra information on planting intentions in the approaching weeks as producers consider bean and corn costs, and the way these will work into crop rotations this 12 months.
In Asia, Thai and Viet costs have formally separated from Indian costs. This is the results of sturdy demand in the brand new calendar 12 months, obtainable provides, and forex fluctuations. But one factor we anticipate is to see these bifurcated markets converge a bit extra in the approaching weeks and months. Expect to see the Indian costs creep up from their present ranges just under $400 pmt, or Viet and Thai costs soften from their present ranges of $455 pmt and $495 pmt, respectively.
We will flip now to Brazil, the rising and most vital risk to the Mexico and Central American markets. A report revealed this week by ABIARROZ, the Brazilian rice group, highlights that milled exports have returned to pre-pandemic ranges in quantity, and have surpassed these ranges in worth. Milled rice accounted for 52.4% of complete rice exports in worth, a drop from earlier years, however paddy rice exports reached their highest ranges each in quantity and worth, respectively 98% and 75% increased than common. Reports of drought in the area will definitely influence manufacturing and exportable provide, however will nonetheless have an effect on the U.S. long-grain complicated.
As talked about in final week’s RA, the lengthy grain commerce is trying in the direction of the outcomes of the Colombian tender on January 23 that requires 89,779 tons (milled foundation) or the equal in paddy. This consequence can be a great measuring stick for the place the US export outlook.