This major economic indicator keeps forecasting recession

This major economic indicator keeps forecasting recession

The numbers: The U.S. main economic index sank 1% in December and flashed even stronger indicators {that a} recession is probably going quickly.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.7% decline.

The LEI is a gauge of 10 indicators designed to point out whether or not the economic system is getting higher or worse. The report is published by the nonprofit Conference Board.

The index additionally tumbled 1.1% in November.

Big image: The economic system has slowed in response to greater rates of interest orchestrated by the Federal Reserve to tame inflation. Yet the rising price of borrowing additionally threatens to plunge the U.S. right into a second recession 4 years.

Read: A recession is coming, economists say. Some even think it’s already here

Also: A ‘zero’ economy? No growth and rising unemployment forecast for 2023

Key particulars: The main index fell in December attributable to a softening labor market, a slowdown in manufacturing and fewer properties being constructed. Wall Street additionally gave off damaging indicators final month.

A measure of present economic situations rose a scant 0.1% in December.

The so-called lagging index — a glance within the rearview mirror — elevated by 0.3%.

Looking forward: “The U.S. LEI fell sharply once more in December — persevering with to sign recession for the U.S. economic system within the close to time period,” mentioned Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic analysis on the board.

Market response: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
and S&P 500
rose in Monday trades.